Category & Competition: How to Read the Signals That Matter
This is Part 3 in the 2026 Planning Series.
In Parts 1 and 2, we covered macro trends and consumer behavior. Now: understanding how your consumers actually behave in your category—and what you're going to do about it in 2026.
When you're scaling, you can't afford to build strategy on stale assumptions. The cost of being wrong compounds: more inventory risk, more media waste, more opportunity cost.
Don't start from scratch. Pressure-test assumptions so you're positioned to win as the stakes get higher.
As a challenger brand, you can't control macro trends or force competitors' hands. But you can position where momentum exists, exploit their blind spots, and occasionally shift category expectations entirely. The key is knowing which battles to fight—and which forces to ride.
Start with an IRL store & digital walk through, not decks
(Or a digital shelf audit if you’re DTC-only). This is the reality check that grounds every strategic decision that follows.
Study how your category actually shows up today like your brand depends on it… because it does.
Then, pressure-test three things:
Your Category Assumptions
The Strategic Question: Has the white space shifted, and are you still positioned to win where it matters?
Which trends from 12–18 months ago are still accelerating vs. stalling?
Which segments are growing, declining, saturated, or expanding?
Which usage occasions are gaining relevance and which are fading?
Have table stakes changed?
Are you differentiating on what matters now, or on things that are already commoditized?
Who is solving the same job-to-be-done differently than before?
Have new alternative categories emerged?
Your Competitive Intelligence
The Strategic Question: What's changed in the last 12 months about how consumers decide that should influence your strategy? What do competitor moves reveal?
Where has your consumer shifted their shopping behavior?
Which retailers are gaining or losing relevance and why?
Where are competitors pulling back vs. doubling down?
Are new launches chasing growth or defending decline?
Which SKUs are gaining velocity and which are quietly being deprioritized?
Is competitive switching behavior different?
Build (or Reassess) Your Decision Tree
Decision trees are your north star for messaging, product innovation, channel strategy, and creator recruitment. Most smaller brands don't have this, but it's one of the most valuable strategic assets you can build.
The Strategic Question: What causes someone to switch from their current solution? Where can you intervene to shift the decision in your favor?
The Framework:
Trigger: What causes them to think about your category?
Consideration Set: When they think about solving this need, what comes to mind? (Your brand? Competitors? Alternatives?)
Filters: What criteria do they use to narrow choices? (Think beyond benefits: brand, size, form, flavor, price—what's the priority hierarchy?)These have real channel and sku implications.
Decision: What tips the scale in the moment? Online or at physical shelf?
Post-purchase: What determines whether they buy again or switch?
Now What?
1. Identify Your Wedge
Where are you positioned to win? Your wedge lives at the intersection of:
Where competitors are vulnerable
Where consumers are underserved
Where you can credibly compete
2. Prioritize Your Battlegrounds
You can't fight everywhere. Decide if you attack where they're weak, defend where you're strong, and/or create new space.
3. Build Your Strategic Playbook
Your category intelligence should inform: product strategy, pricing strategy, distribution strategy, marketing strategy, and creator strategy.
The Bottom Line
Chase momentum, not competitors. Position in growth segments. Lead with benefits that matter now. Build on current reality, not 18-month-old assumptions.
The brands that win in 2026 won't have the biggest budgets. They'll understand their category and competition better than anyone else—and ruthlessly exploit that understanding.
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Next in the series: Part 4 - Audit 2025: The Only Four Things That Matter
Need help turning competitive research into actual strategy? Let's talk.
